The Big Picture: Prices and Incomes Are Out of Sync

For years, the Austin–Round Rock area (and specifically ZIP code 78613) experienced strong but manageable appreciation. Local incomes and home prices moved in the same general direction, and most buyers could eventually “grow into” the market.

Then COVID hit, and home prices took off at a pace that local incomes simply couldn’t match.

Pre-COVID: Healthy, Sustainable Appreciation

Looking back at your local data from 2011 through early 2020, homes in 78613 appreciated at an average of about $15,625 per year.

That pace of appreciation was:

• steady and predictable,
• aligned with typical raises and income growth, and
• generally within reach for buyers in the Austin MSA.

In that environment, a household that worked hard, saved, and planned could reasonably expect to keep up with the market.

COVID Years: When the Curve Broke

Starting around 2020, the trend changed dramatically. Instead of $15,000-ish per year, many homes saw $60,000 to $120,000+ of appreciation in a single year.

At the same time, most local households only saw relatively modest income increases — often just a few thousand dollars per year. Property taxes and insurance climbed, too. Interest rates eventually followed.

So Where Did All the Buyers Go?

During the pandemic boom, it felt like buyers were everywhere—competing, waiving contingencies, and bidding above list price. Many sellers are still subconsciously expecting that market.

Today’s reality is very different. The buyers didn’t stop wanting homes. Instead, a large portion of them simply got priced out.

When the cost of housing rises four to six times faster than income, buyers don’t get picky—they get sidelined.

A Smaller Buyer Pool, Not a “Bad House”

This is the crucial mindset shift for today's sellers: your showing activity reflects affordability, not your home's worth.

• Fewer households can qualify for a median-priced home.
• Debt-to-income limits haven’t changed, even as prices and costs have.
• Some would-be buyers have retreated to renting or waiting.

The result? Even good, well-presented listings attract fewer showings and often take longer to secure the right offer.

What Sellers Can Control in This Market

You can’t control interest rates, insurance premiums, or the pace of wage growth. But you can control how your home is positioned within this new reality.

1. Pricing With the Real Buyer Pool in Mind

Instead of pricing solely based of what a neighbor got at the peak, we now have to ask:

• What can today’s qualified buyers actually afford?
• How does my home compare to the current competition, not last year’s sale?
• Is my price helping buyers say “yes,” or forcing them to stretch too far?

2. Condition and Presentation

In a tighter affordability market, buyers become more selective. Homes that feel “move-in ready” and well cared for have a clear edge over those that need work, even if the floor plan or square footage is similar.

3. Patience and Strategy

It’s normal for homes to take longer to sell than during the frenzy years. That doesn’t mean your home is failing; it means we’re operating in a more balanced (and more financially rational) market.